The NHS in England is set to initiate a groundbreaking trial of an artificial intelligence tool dubbed Aire, designed to enhance patient outcomes by predicting the risk of disease and early mortality.
Aire, or AI-ECG risk estimation, is an innovative technology that analyzes electrocardiogram (ECG) results, which capture the heart’s electrical activity. This tool excels at identifying structural heart issues that might escape a doctor’s notice, flagging patients who may require further monitoring, testing, or treatment.
This pioneering trial will first take place at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Chelsea and Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, with plans to expand to additional hospitals afterward. Initial recruitment will involve hundreds of patients, with a goal of scaling up for broader studies.
Research published in the Lancet Digital Health journal reveals that Aire accurately identifies a patient’s risk of death in the decade following the ECG with an impressive 78% accuracy. The AI has been trained using a vast dataset comprising 1.16 million ECG results from nearly 190,000 patients. Additionally, it predicts future heart failure in 79% of cases, serious heart rhythm issues in 76%, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease—characterized by narrowed arteries—in 70% of cases.
Dr. Fu Siong Ng, a cardiac electrophysiology expert at Imperial College London and a consultant cardiologist at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, envisions a future where every hospital ECG will undergo analysis through this model. “Our goal is for anyone receiving an ECG in the NHS in the next five to ten years to benefit from this technology. Clinicians will be alerted not only about diagnoses but also about a spectrum of health risks, allowing for early interventions to prevent disease,” he explained.
For instance, if a patient is flagged as being at high risk for a specific heart rhythm issue, it allows for more proactive treatment approaches, such as weight-loss programs or even early medical interventions to prevent disease progression. Dr. Ng emphasized that these plans will be the focus of upcoming clinical studies.
Dr. Arunashis Sau, a clinical research fellow with the British Heart Foundation at Imperial College London’s National Heart and Lung Institute and a cardiology registrar at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, emphasized the importance of using AI-enhanced ECG assessments to identify high-risk individuals. “ECGs are a standard and affordable test that can inform more detailed diagnostic procedures, transforming patient management while potentially mitigating serious health risks,” he said.
“The distinction we aim to achieve with this technology is to reach capabilities beyond human potential—not merely to speed up or replace a doctor’s analysis, but to uncover insights that practitioners cannot see through traditional heart tracing alone.”
