On October 18, the National Bureau of Statistics released an interpretative report by Chief Statistician Wang Zhonghua regarding the changes in commodity housing sales prices for September 2024.
According to the report, the month of September saw a stabilization in the month-over-month decline of commodity housing sales prices across 70 major cities, while the year-over-year decline intensified. Results from a recent survey indicate that since late September, confidence in the real estate market has been improving, along with positive expectations.
Firstly, the month-over-month decline in commodity housing sales prices has generally stabilized. In September, the sales prices of newly constructed commodity housing in first-tier cities dropped by 0.5% compared to the previous month, widening the decline by 0.2 percentage points. Specifically, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw decreases of 0.7%, 0.9%, and 1.0%, respectively, while Shanghai experienced an increase of 0.6%. In second-tier cities, newly built commodity housing prices fell by 0.7%, unchanged from the previous month. Third-tier cities also reported a 0.7% decline, which is a slight narrowing of the previous month’s decrease.
In terms of second-hand housing, first-tier cities reported a month-over-month drop of 1.2% in September, widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the prior month. Prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen fell by 1.3%, 1.2%, 1.1%, and 1.3%, respectively. Second-tier cities saw a more modest decline of 0.9%, narrowing by 0.1 percentage points, while third-tier cities maintained a stable 0.9% drop.
Secondly, the year-over-year decline in commodity housing prices has expanded. Newly constructed commodity housing prices in first-tier cities fell by 4.7% year-over-year in September, an increase in the decline by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. In this category, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced declines of 4.6%, 10.3%, and 8.6%, while Shanghai’s prices rose by 4.9%. Second- and third-tier cities saw year-over-year price drops of 5.7% and 6.6%, respectively, both widening by 0.4 percentage points from last month.
For second-hand housing, first-tier cities reported a year-over-year decline of 10.7%, which is a 1.3 percentage point increase in the fall compared to last month, with price drops in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen of 10.3%, 7.6%, 12.8%, and 12.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, second- and third-tier cities experienced year-over-year declines of 8.9% and 9.0%, with increases in the drops of 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.
Lastly, a survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in late September revealed that expectations for the real estate market are improving. Among the respondents in the survey regarding price trends for newly constructed and second-hand housing, 58.3% and 45.4%, respectively, believe prices will remain stable or increase over the next six months. This reflects an increase of 10.0 and 6.5 percentage points compared to last month’s survey results.
