The Japanese House of Representatives election is scheduled for the 27th, and it remains uncertain whether the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its long-time ally, Komeito, will maintain a majority. Street corners in Tokyo are filled with campaign posters from various candidates, highlighting the election’s imminent nature.
Polling data suggests that the LDP is facing a challenging election cycle. Even with the support of Komeito, it appears they may struggle to secure a majority in the House. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, whose popularity has declined, has issued urgent notices to candidates across different electoral districts, pledging to “do everything possible” to lead the party to victory. Analysts from Reuters indicate that voters are dissatisfied with the LDP’s political funding scandals and rising inflation, which could force the party to compromise on governance with other political factions and increase geopolitical uncertainties.
According to the latest polls from Asahi Shimbun, the LDP could see its seat count drop by around 50 from the pre-election figure of 257. Komeito might lose about 10 of its 32 seats, leaving the coalition unable to reach the 233-seat threshold for a majority. It is estimated that while the LDP may still remain the largest party in parliament, the seats lost could gravitate towards the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party.
Inside the LDP, senior leadership has convened campaign strategy meetings, focusing on key electoral districts based on polling gaps. Areas where LDP candidates are trailing by over 10 percentage points are being strategically abandoned, allowing efforts to concentrate on around 40 districts where the competition is closer. Warnings have been issued during these meetings that some ministers in Ishiba’s cabinet may not retain their seats, and preparations are being made accordingly. Ishiba’s approval ratings have slipped from about 44% at the beginning of the month to approximately 41% now.
Reuters suggests that if the LDP must rely on Komeito to achieve a majority, the pacifist Komeito might be more likely to impede the LDP’s attempts to amend the pacifist constitution or develop long-range missile capabilities in response to perceived threats from China. Should the LDP seek support from other opposition parties to form a governing coalition, Ishiba’s administration may face significant challenges, especially in pushing the Bank of Japan to end its long-standing monetary easing policy.
Consultant Rintaro Nishimura from Asia Group warns that regardless of the election outcome, Japan is likely to enter a period of political instability.
