In California, approximately 10% of voters have already returned their ballots, with a significant portion being older voters and Republicans. However, political experts suggest that this trend is not unusual and does not indicate any political shift in the traditionally blue state or imply that younger voters will not participate in the election.
As of now, around 2.3 million Californians have cast their votes, representing just 10% of the 22 million registered voters statewide. Among those who have voted early, older adults and Republicans are overrepresented.
Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., a voter data analytics firm, points out that while Republicans and older voters are participating in early voting at higher rates than their Democratic and younger counterparts, this observation is commonplace and not symptomatic of a political transformation in California or declining youth voter engagement.
According to the San Jose Mercury News, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in California by about two to one. In several counties within the Bay Area, approximately 10% of voters have already voted early, with Marin County showing a 15% turnout. Alameda County’s early voting rate stood at 3% as of the morning of October 22, a figure Mitchell attributes to slower data updates in that area.
The upcoming election on November 5 is expected to have significant political implications at the national, state, and local levels. While California is anticipated to favor the incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris in her presidential campaign, there are six congressional districts at stake that could determine which party controls Congress. Additionally, voters statewide will decide on various propositions, including those aimed at enhancing criminal penalties and funding for schools and climate initiatives. There will also be considerations regarding a proposal aimed at strengthening penalties for shoplifting and drug possession.
Political analysts are closely monitoring the results of early ballot counting in October to gather insights on which demographics are participating in early voting and the motivations driving voter turnout. With less than two weeks until Election Day, it remains to be seen whether Democrat and Republican candidates can energize their supporters to increase voter participation.
California implemented universal mail-in voting during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This voting method hasn’t been in place for long, making it challenging for political consultants to parallel California’s mail-in voting system with traditional election models in the U.S.
