Arne Slot’s Liverpool are flying and top of the Premier League after 10 games. But can they last the course?
By David Segar for Opta Analyst
David SegarFri 11 Oct 2024 07.00 EDTLast modified on Fri 11 Oct 2024 12.15 EDTShareMany said it would be an ‘impossible job’. Manchester United and Arsenal both dipped after the departures of Alex Ferguson and Arsène Wenger, so obviously, the same would happen to Liverpool when Jürgen Klopp stepped aside, right?
Well, 10 games into the Arne Slot reign at Anfield and Liverpool are in the fourth round of the Carabao Cup, have maximum points in the league phase of the Champions League and sit top of the Premier League. Slot is the first Reds boss to win as many as nine of his first 10 games in charge of the club.
It’s going well but it’s only a start. Unai Emery won eight and lost two of his first 10 when he succeeded Wenger at Arsenal in 2018. Slot’s impressive beginning must therefore be taken with a pinch of salt for now but the former Feyenoord boss is taking to life in England better than many predicted.
One particularly impressive aspect of Liverpool in 2024-25 has been their form on the road. As well as dispatching Milan 3-1 at San Siro in their opening Champions League game, Slot’s side also have a 100% record in league away games, beating Ipswich Town, Manchester United, Wolves and Crystal Palace.
Liverpool only won nine of their 19 away games in the league last season, and it took until 9 December for them to win their fourth away game of the campaign. That was their ninth league away game of 2023-24, though that run had included tricky trips to Chelsea, Tottenham, Brighton and Manchester City. That’s another thing to consider; while Liverpool are top of the pile, they have on paper had one of the kinder starts to the season.
View image in fullscreenFixture difficulty graphic after seven Premier League games. Photograph: Opta AnalystAs the old saying goes, though, you can only beat what’s in front of you and, apart from an off day against an impressive Nottingham Forest at Anfield where they were beaten 1-0, Slot’s Liverpool have otherwise been flawless.
One of the keys to Liverpool’s apparently seamless transition from Klopp to Slot is that the two managers’ playing styles are similar in many ways. They both prefer four at the back and an attacking trio with inverted wide forwards. The midfield makeup is slightly different but it’s still about energy and doing the dirty work for the rest of the team.
In an interview with TNT Sports prior to the season, Slot said: “I think you saw in the matches we’ve played in pre-season that there are a lot of similarities with the style Jürgen implemented over here. We both like to have the ball, we both like to be really intense without the ball. Jürgen likes to be really intense with the ball, which I like at certain moments as well, but I also don’t mind if we keep the ball, and maybe Jürgen didn’t mind as well, to keep the ball a bit longer.”
Looking at Liverpool’s numbers this season compared to their time under Klopp, there are slight differences already, albeit from a small sample size, so it should be remembered that the data will fluctuate during the remaining 31 games of the campaign.
View image in fullscreenLiverpool’s goalscorer Diogo Jota with Cody Gakpo after their 1-0 victory at Crystal Palace last weekend. Photograph: Ashley Western/Colorsport/ShutterstockLiverpool are averaging 2.0 expected goals a game; they only averaged more across a league campaign twice under Klopp (2021-22 and last season), while they are averaging just 0.74 xG against a game this season. That’s well down from 1.22 last season and they never averaged lower than 0.76 (2019-20) under Klopp. Again, it’s a small sample size.
Unlike last season when their 20.8 shots-per-game average was the highest in the league, Liverpool’s high xG this season is not so much due to shot volume. Slot’s Liverpool have averaged 15.3 shots a game in the Premier League, only averaging fewer under Klopp in 2018-19 (15.1). It was busy at both ends for Liverpool in 2023-24 as their 10.9 shots faced last season was their highest average under Klopp. That’s come down to 9.1 this season.
Are they looking after the ball better now, as Slot wanted them to? Liverpool average 570.1 passes a game in the Premier League this season, lower than every full Klopp season. However, although they are attempting fewer passes, their accuracy (86.6%) is higher than in any league campaign under the German. Liverpool’s average possession of 60.3% is their lowest since 2015-16 but is still the third highest in the Premier League this season behind only Manchester City (63.5%) and Tottenham (62.4%).
Interestingly, only City have had more sequences of 10+ passes, which suggests that while Liverpool are passing it slightly less, they’re also having their sequences broken up less often. They’re averaging 4.5 passes per sequence this season, up from 4.2 in 2023-24.
Liverpool have mostly felt in control of games this season, whereas the popular opinion is that their games were more chaotic in the last couple of years. ‘Control’ has become a buzzword around them of late, and the lower number of chances they are giving up suggests they may well be controlling games better under Slot. In recent seasons the role of Trent Alexander-Arnold has been key to how Liverpool have built up, but now it seems to be more spread out across the team. Alexander-Arnold averaged 100 touches per 90 minutes for Liverpool last season, but is having just 76.9 touches per 90 so far this term. That may be to do with him sticking to more traditional right-back positions than he had done in previous seasons, when he moved into midfield frequently.
View image in fullscreenTrent Alexander-Arnold’s heat map for 2024-25. Photograph: Opta AnalystIt feels like there’s more of a consistent structure and balance in defence with Alexander-Arnold sticking to the right flank more, which is no doubt a relief to right-sided centre-back Ibrahima Konaté.
Liverpool conceded 41 goals in the Premier League last season, while after seven games under Slot they have conceded just twice. The next best defensive records are Arsenal and Forest with six goals against. Again, the small sample size and strength of their opposition so far should be considered, but they are so far reducing the quality of chances they face.
Liverpool averaged 0.11 xG against per shot in the Premier League in 2023-24, compared to 0.08 this season. It might not sound like much but only nine teams averaged a higher xG per shot against last season, while only Arsenal (0.07) have averaged a lower one so far this season.
How about off the ball? Klopp’s teams were known as ‘pressing monsters’, with former assistant Pep Lijnders declaring on several occasions that their “identity” was “intensity”. Their total of high turnovers (defined as winning the ball back within 40 metres of the opposition’s goal line) is the seventh highest in the league, averaging 8.7 a game, while they averaged 10.3 last season – the third highest. Liverpool are winning possession in the opposition’s final third 4.3 times per league game on average, which is lower than it ever was under Klopp across a full season, with 10 teams doing so more than the Reds’ 30 times in 2024-25.
It might not be down to a change in philosophy, though. One possible explanation for all this is that Liverpool have been chasing games less than they did on average in 2023-24. In fact, they have led games for a larger percentage of time than anyone else this season (58%), and only Arsenal (2%) have been behind for less time than their 3%.
View image in fullscreenPremier League game state for 2024-25. Photograph: Opta AnalystLiverpool conceded the first goal of a Premier League game on 16 occasions last season, while they have only done so once this season, and haven’t had to score a late winner yet. The latest Liverpool have scored a goal that has ended up being the clincher is 61 minutes, which was Mohamed Salah’s penalty in the 2-1 victory at Wolves. The Nottingham Forest defeat was the only game they have been chasing rather than protecting a lead in the last third of a game.
Slot has made clear how important he believes winning duels is. For every duel won there is a corresponding duel lost depending on the outcome of the contest. Liverpool have won 51.3% of their duels in the Premier League this season, having not won more than 50% of duels in any full league campaign since 2019-20. Their current success rate is more than any season under Klopp.
That brings us nicely on to players who Slot is getting the best from – and we start with Konaté. The French centre-back began the season on the bench as youngster Jarell Quansah was handed a start at Ipswich on the opening day next to Van Dijk. Konaté came on at half-time and helped Liverpool take control at Portman Road and ultimately win against the promoted side. He’s started every game since, apart from the 5-1 Carabao Cup win over West Ham.
Konaté struggled for form last season, to the point that Klopp was choosing Quansah over him for periods. He has thrived since coming back into the side in 2024-25, though, winning an impressive 30 of his 36 aerial duels (83.3%) in all competitions, compared to 110 of 157 last season (70.1%), and scoring two goals, having not found the net at all in the previous two campaigns.
Another player who needed a stronger season and is very much rising to the occasion is Ryan Gravenberch. The former Ajax and Bayern Munich midfielder has become a key part of Slot’s midfield, and has earned that place, winning 59.3% of his duels in all competitions, making 61 recoveries and 19 interceptions – both more than any of his teammates – and completing 89.7% of his passes.
In terms of the attack, the headline number that signal an improvement from Luis Díaz is that he has already scored five goals in seven Premier League games, having only managed eight in the whole of last season. The Colombian is creating fewer chances (2.0 per 90 minutes down from 2.2 last season) and is even taking fewer shots (3.0 per 90 down from 3.2), but he’s been much more clinical with his finishing.
As is the case with any team, injuries will be a factor. Slot’s men have largely avoided them in the early weeks. Harvey Elliott was the only significant absentee prior to Saturday when Alisson went down with a hamstring problem.
As mentioned, many will now be looking to see how Liverpool do when the standard of the opponent increases. In the next run of Premier League games, Liverpool face Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Aston Villa. All tough fixtures, albeit only the Arsenal game takes place away from Anfield. According to Opta’s fixture difficulty, which bases opponent strength on their rating in the Opta Power Rankings, Liverpool have the fourth toughest run of games in that period.
View image in fullscreenEach team’s fixture difficulty for the next 10 games. Photograph: Opta AnalystExpand that to the next 10 league games, and Liverpool’s task is apparently the toughest. By the time they play the final game of that run we will only be two games from the halfway point of the 2024-25 Premier League season and should have a much better idea of how ambitious Slot’s Liverpool can be.
It was confirmed on Wednesday that Klopp will become the Head of Global Soccer for Red Bull in January 2025. Ten games into the post-Klopp era at Anfield, you could argue that it’s Slot who has given Liverpool wings. The question is, how high can they reach?
This is an edited extract of an article by Opta Analyst
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